A large part of the Russian military is involved in the offensive in eastern Ukraine, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said. With the battle in the east, Russia wants to take control of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions and ensure the stability of the land corridor with Crimea. CNN Prima News spoke to security adviser Andor Sandor about the likely course of the second phase of the war. On the terrain on which Russia is now treading, Putin predicts success. And warns the Czech government: you better not talk about our deliveries to Ukraine.
At the start, Sandor commented on the likelihood of the Russians breaking through the defensive line and moving further west – if that was Russia’s intention. “I think that despite the losses that are being talked about, they still have enough strength to be able to achieve this goal. The question, of course, is in what time frame and for what casualties – both on his side and, of course , on the Ukrainian side. I have said this several times. We still do not know what military goals Putin has set for himself to achieve the political goals. And the army logically changes according to how and where it succeeds or fails, how, well Of course, the Ukrainian side is succeeding in its resistance, which in many ways depends on its ability to be reinforced by the Western world in the arms and ammunition supplies they need,” Sandor said.
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“I think the south has a lot more control over the south than the cities in the north. And maybe they also wanted to push political leaders into agreements with their presence near kyiv, but the south, they won’t let go. nothing. And the connection with the mainland of Crimea is obvious and moreover, it has a great economic impact – negative, on Ukraine, if they cut off Ukraine from the Black Sea, so after losing access in Azovsky, Ukraine would suffer a lot in terms of economy, exports,” added Sandor.
“Better not to talk about our supplies”
However, Russia is still attacking in western Ukraine, for example, there was an attack on an arms depot near Lviv. Can we expect another raid on Lviv? “Supplies from the West are crucial to the success of the Ukrainians and the failure of the Russians. Ukrainian industry is unable to supply Ukraine with the number and quality of weapons it needs to block the Russians, we so we will see more attacks. And in this context, I think that the Czech side should not talk about it, that no tanks should be seen, because it only draws the attention of the Russians to these supplies – and they see them as a legitimate target, and they have said so many times. We will see such attacks – and of course we will perhaps see isolated rocket attacks, but always on certain industrial installations in Ukraine,” Sandor added.
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According to him, the fighting in northern Ukraine was marked by Ukrainian-led guerrilla-style fighting. “There was also complicated forest terrain, a number of waterways. It’s not like that in the south. The Russians will now be able to deploy larger tank units, maneuver better, and with the help of artillery and combat support they will always have an advantage in the Ukrainian way of bypassing kyiv and other big cities. So the assumption that Russia will unfortunately succeed in the south is more likely than not,” Sandor concluded.
General recently: We jumped on the United States
In the past, General Sandor has described the origin of the crisis as a US effort to pull Ukraine out of Russian orbit, which could have been avoided by keeping Ukraine neutral. “If we were reasonable and left Ukraine neutral, tried to be economically stable and truly independent, we probably wouldn’t see any conflict,” he said. “The United States cannot do anything about this crisis and the consequences and the burdens will be borne by Europe. I was surprised to see how Europe jumped on this narrative from the United States, how quickly she accepted that pressure and didn’t think we would bear the consequences,” he said, adding, “The US effort to weaken Russia through Ukraine will be led by us.” However , he does not think that the Russians would like to return to the Czech Republic.
At the time, Sandor also criticized who assessed the Ukrainian conflict: “Everything floats on the surface. And when I hear the evaluation of the strategic role of the Russian army from the boys who have reached the maximum rank of ensign, I think to myself, where the hell do these boys take scholarship to evaluate the strategy and Russian operational art. »
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