As long as Putin is in power, there will be a war with the West. Despite the fact that NATO does not want it, says post-Soviet space expert Valvoda

And Personality Plus continues: “Putin decided to put his size and the size of Russia on the conflict with the West. He has been preparing Russian society for the Great War for ten years. His propaganda, not only through the news, but also through various series, all of them say their original work, describes the agents of the West of the narrative which are now used”, explains the expert of the post-Soviet space.

We have no chance of ensuring that if one side wants war and the other doesn’t, we will unfortunately have a war.

Rostislav Valvoda

“I don’t think we have the possibility to make sure that if one side wants war and the other doesn’t, we will unfortunately have a war. Because if someone wants it unilaterally, it can’t be prevented,” he adds.

According to the director of the Center for Civil Society in Prague, the war between Putin and the West will last for many years. “Until Putin dies – peacefully or not.”

Attack on Poland?

According to Valvoda, this does not necessarily mean that the war will continue with the same intensity. “Simply because Russia itself does not have the capability to do so. It has already lost about a third of its combat-capable army in the initial fighting. And the Ukrainians will continue to defend their teeth with their fingernails. Of course, it is crucial that they have something, but it is likely that they could decimate another large part of the Russian army.”

Putin may not decide to “raise the stakes” and attack Poland.

Rostislav Valvoda

“It is possible that Putin does not decide at this moment to ‘raise the stakes’ and, for example, to launch an attack on Poland. Just to involve NATO in the conflict. The moment he feels to lose. Because losing to Russian society in the conflict with Ukraine is a bit undignified. While losing to NATO, it gives him a chance to mobilize even more support within Russia.”

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“After all, Russian propaganda presents the whole conflict as a conflict with NATO. From the point of view of Russian propaganda, it is not about Ukraine at all. Ukraine is just a battlefield, but the real conflict is with NATO, so it’s only a matter of time before he does something similar,” he thinks.

At the same time, Valvod fears that we don’t have a public debate about what to do when the Russians send a rocket into Polish territory. “How are we going to respond to this? NATO is clear and it is clear that attack will lead to defense, but what will that look like? I have no doubt that soldiers and analysts have these plans, but I think society should know too, because we have to be prepared for what is to come,” he says.

Putin does not count the massacres of the people. He doesn’t care, it’s not an important factor for him.

Rostislav Valvoda

“If Vladimir Putin feels like he’s managed to achieve ‘something’ in Ukraine that he hasn’t yet achieved – and not counting the huge massacres of people he doesn’t care about, that’s not an important factor for him – but if he thought he could take, destroy the best part of the Ukrainian army, which is concentrated around the Donbass, and then continue and return to kyiv, for example, and so on, so if he didn’t, the probability is somehow on the order of ten percent, “Valvoda answers the question of what the probability of a conflict with NATO is.

At the same time, he reminds that the current state of the Russian army, or what remains of it after the fighting in the Donbass, will also play a role.

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So, is it realistic for the Ukrainians to defeat the Russian army, or not?

“We were all a bit wrong to accept the framing of Russian propaganda which gave the impression and myth of a strong and all-powerful Russian army. Of course, this is based on historical reasons and facts, it is to say mainly on the number of people and technologies at their disposal”, he answers.

“But Western services and military experts have not, in my opinion, taken into account what the army looks like after decades of mad corruption. Which is typical for all of Russia. That’s why the country is ruled, but it’s clear in this army. In short – when someone steals money that’s supposed to go for fuel, then it really isn’t fuel,” Valvoda recalled.

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At the same time, he explains why the Kremlin began to fight.

“Putin’s plan remains unchanged. His vision – the way the world imagines it – is only Russia and a few other powers who will decide how other countries will live. And the smaller ones will have virtually no chance. There will be no international law, there will be no collective organizations like NATO or the European Union that protect small countries. Because its vision is from the 19th century,” Valvoda describes.

Putin’s plan is not working. “He imagined that he would swallow Ukraine and that in a few days there would be sanctions and that the West would get used to it in time. His vision – the layout of the Western order – failed. On the contrary , it has united the West more than ever and made the aggressive policy of the Russian regime very visible, which certainly does not arouse any sympathy,” concludes the director of the Center for Civil Society in Prague.

You can find the entirety of Personality Plus Barbora Tachecí in the audio recording. You will also learn about the plans of the Russians and the Baltic countries and other countries of the Soviet Union 2.0.

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