Before the war, Vladimir Putin claimed he was not going to attack Ukraine and then hinted that conflict was inevitable. Romancov thinks we still haven’t heard the real reason the Russians started the war. The geographer does not believe that the reasons given by the Kremlin are true. He thinks Putin’s motives are political and we can only speculate about them as we don’t know what is really going on in the Kremlin.
According to Romancov, we also don’t know if Putin is bothered by the Europeanization of Ukraine or if Ukraine is not under his control and unwilling to do the same with Russia. Perhaps Putin thought the war would show that Russia was still trying to retain its exclusive sphere of influence.
Baar believes one of Putin’s reasons for the invasion is to show the world that Russia is a world power. Although the Russian leader also talks about wanting to multipolarize the world, he essentially wants to tripolarize it. He recognizes the influence of the United States, has accepted the influence of China and wants to prove that he is strong enough. In Central Asia, he starts shooting for a shorter end, so he wants to catch up in Ukraine.
Whether or not the West could have done something different towards Russia to prevent this conflict, Romancov replies: Putin did not have to attack Ukraine if we gave it to him, if it sounded from the West that he would marry her and no one would resist for that. This is basically something Putin was looking for. One of Putin’s biggest setbacks is that he hasn’t found a suitable partner in the West, Romancov thinks. He thought Donald Trump would be the partner. He pointed out that the world could have had a tougher reaction after the annexation of Crimea. Putin did not attack Ukraine until now, but eight years ago, he recalled.
Destruction of Ukraine
Baar thinks that the behavior of the Russian government and its policy towards another nation suppresses his ambitions and makes him a person destined for liquidation, reaching the same level as Adolf Hitler. “Putin has reached the platform of Nazism and is now accusing someone else. Many countries have groups close to Nazism, just like Russia. This regime, which is in Russia, is fascist, even with elements Nazism, I’m not ashamed to say,” he said.
According to two recent polls, more than 80% of Russians support Russian President Vladimir Putin and the conflict in Ukraine. According to Romancov, propaganda plays an important role in this. More than 70% of the population of the Russian Federation has probably never traveled abroad. They’ve never been to Belarus or Kazakhstan, so they have very limited personal experience of what it’s like elsewhere. Moreover, 75-78% of the population has the sole source of all news broadcasting one of the five state channels, all of which broadcast official interpretations of events.
“Russians have been exposed to it for a very long time. I would attribute this to the most significant contribution to supporting Putin. There has never been an experience in Russia with a long-standing and critical public space.” “There has never been an opposition capable of articulating its issues and eventually replacing the government without conflict with the government,” he said.
The cold war is not over
According to some experts, the so-called Cold War never ended. During this, the world was divided into countries under American influence and countries under Soviet influence. These power relations began to take shape after the Second World War. The Soviet Union formed a bloc of Eastern and Central European states, which came together in the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance. The United States, in turn, announces the Marshall Plan, which brings together the states of Western Europe. This marked the beginning of an era of high international political tension, which was mitigated by the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.
In the book The Grand Chessboard, Zbigniew Brzezinski wrote: “The last decade of the 20th century marked a tectonic breakthrough in world affairs. For the first time in history, a non-Eurasian power has become the arbiter of Eurasian power relations and, what is more, the most important world power. The defeat and disintegration of the Soviet Union was the final stage in the rapid rise of the United States to the role of the first and only true world power. »
However, Baar thinks that the unipolar position of the United States is rather a thing of the past. “The United States is still the strongest military power, but it has greatly robbed it of the prestige of untapped action in Afghanistan and Iraq. But the United States is not alone, it is a bloc within of NATO which is extremely strong and for which Russia is a dwarf,” he said.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov recently said: “The current crisis is a fateful moment, a landmark moment in modern history, as it reflects a battle in the broadest sense over what the ‘world order’.
According to Romancov, the world order in Russia’s imagination should look like any country in the world, including China and the United States, if they decide to do something, they will first come to Moscow to ask if they can do it.
We haven’t had a war of this magnitude in the world for a long time, but he still doesn’t think it would be on a scale comparable to World War I or World War II.