Kysilka: The West fattened Putin with huge energy prices. Therefore, he could afford to invade Ukraine iROZHLAS



“The Russian aggression is just the culmination of something that has been happening here for a long time and which politicians and security officers could have foreseen. Because they had pretty decent information from us economists,” explains Pavel Kysilka, former deputy governor of the Czech National Bank and former director of Česká spořitelna, for Czech Radio Plus: “Foreign exchange reserves of the Russian central bank and the share of gold in them have been increasing sharply for more than two years.”




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According to the economist, such an approach was a sign “that the Russian state leadership has something wrong.”

“So there was something to look forward to – but of course no one could know when, how and what it would be. Besides, we – and I mean the Western world – fattened Putin up so he could afford such aggression. And we fed it with huge energy prices, which were long before the invasion.”

Listen to the full Personality Plus Barbora Tachecí

According to Kysilka, the West was very active in the fight against climate change, the Green Deal was created, and the Germans were also ready to close their nuclear power plants.

“It’s because of this pressure to invest in energy that it’s stopped happening all over the world. And if you don’t invest, you don’t have the capacity, but the demand is huge. So , how does the supply correspond to the demand? With the growth of prices”, he answers in the program Osobnost Plus.

“We are impoverishing the middle class”

“Whatever we think of ecology, as an economist I say, is of great value inasmuch as we are now completely impoverishing the middle and lower class of the world’s population and at the same time killing dozens of thousands of Ukrainians. But all this is the result of certain political moves”, he calculates, adding that we must also add the consequences of the covid pandemic.



As an example, he cites politicians who traded with the Russian state and President Vladimir Putin.

“Let’s look at Barack Obama, Angela Merkel, Olaf Scholz. (…) To those social-democratic ‘pro-Russian uncles’ in Germany. Gerhard Schröder, Austrian politicians and Prime Ministers in various administrative bodies of large Russian companies. This is more than appeasement – it’s ass climbing. I’m sorry, but you can’t call it anything else. And now we’re reaping terribly bitter fruit,” he thinks.

Last week, Putin signed a decree that he wants ruble payments for Russian oil and gas.


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“It just came to our knowledge at that time. Putin will once again look like a winner in this area. The West will not pay in rubles, but will send him to a “euro account” at the Gazprombank. They will exchange it for rubles and pay Gazprom. So both sides will look like winners. It’s like this goat and a wolf,” says Kysilka.

In connection with the Russian gas pipelines, there is also talk of a rapid and vigorous cut off from the West. According to the economist, this is very strong rhetoric. “I have extremely strong doubts that Germany, but also some other countries, will go down this path.”

He continues: “Germans are horrified by social ‘peace’, German trade unions are terrified by what may happen. But let’s be honest, they are afraid of a 1, 2 or 3% drop in GDP. In the case of the Czech Republic, it would be an extra percentage. But look at what the Russian state leadership is sacrificing – it’s 20% of GDP, society’s wealth. And just by snapping a finger.”

What are we going to drown?

If the pipelines ended up closing, what would we do? “Liquefied gas”, says Czech Radio Plus Kysilka.


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“Gas-fired power plants can be gradually converted to coal-fired power plants. But the Germans must not stop what they have to build, and that is the core. We should at least temporarily freeze the closure of coal-fired power plants – and the resumption of coal mining can be done relatively quickly. And, of course, it would be necessary to work strategically to import from Qatar, from the United States,” he added.

“And for a time we would live here on regulation levels, which is also possible, and I remember it from my youth. It can also be ‘exhaled’. And then suppose the energy would no longer have the price it was three or four years ago, and that if we had enough energy, we would pay so-called normal prices from Qatar, America, etc.”

According to Kysilka, we would probably have big investments in the interconnection of networks, for example in Austria, but not only there.


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“There is a strong principle in business and economics – security and diversification. You cannot live in a completely safe world, you always have a risk somewhere, but the risk that we have lived here for 20 years , when it was necessary to know clearly what could happen, was huge,” he notes.

“I’m not saying that we won’t trade with Russia in the future and maybe at very favorable prices, but we have to have a backup solution that we don’t have today. And this backup solution is on offer – you just need to have a clear vision, a strategy and a willingness to really invest in it.”

At the same time, he recalls that the famous economist Michal Mejstřík, who died last year, drew attention to Putin’s thesis years ago. “And even then Putin wrote to him about how he saw Russia and how he saw his role. He made it clear what he was going to do – and now he’s really doing it step by step. What a ‘surprise’, for the love of God”, concludes Pavel Kysilka.

You can find the entire Personality Plus in the audio recording.

Barbora Tachecí, lup

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