A series of exercises around Russia should increase the pressure, thinks security analyst Svarovsky iROZHLAS

A fire broke out at a fuel depot in Belgorod, Russia. Russia claims to have been attacked by Ukrainian helicopters. The head of Ukraine’s Security Council, Oleksiy Danilov, denied the allegations. Which scenario is the most likely? And how to help Ukraine now that Russia is moving its troops from Georgia? Longtime former diplomat Martin Svárovský, head of the security strategy program for the European Values ​​think tank, responded to Radiožurnál.




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Ukrainians looking at a destroyed Russian tank near the northern village of Dmytrivka Photo: Oleksandr Klymenko | Source: Reuters

What is the probability that the Ukrainian army attacked the Belgorod oil depot in Russia?
At this point, I can only say what the official source you quoted said. Yes, the news is. There are a few videos. One was a security camera. The second was apparently taken from a cell phone. There are two helicopters in the videos. On one you can also see S-8 missiles firing the magazine.

Listen to an interview with longtime former diplomat and security expert Martin Svárovský

Choosing this place would make sense, because it is a piece north of Kharkov, where in recent hours there has been an interesting turn of the Ukrainian army. They push the Russian forces on both sides, push them back to the border, and there could be a siege.

Everything leads us to believe that this was the case. But it is new and it should be considered as information we need time for final checking.

From these helicopter plans, it is not possible to determine to whom these helicopters belonged?
From these shots – at least from the ones I’ve seen – I can’t say. But everything indicates that these are Ukrainian helicopters, because this was Russian territory and these were oil depots. It is likely that it was…

But it is not confirmed.
Yes Yes.


In Russia, a fuel depot set fire to the western border. According to the governor, Ukrainian helicopters attacked

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If it was an attack from the Ukrainian side, what would the Ukrainians be watching?
The attack beyond the border was not the first, there were already attacks of a lesser nature. The attacks can be considered legitimate. I agree with the Ukrainian side, because it defends itself, it is bombarded. Thus, the fact that he will lead the attack on Russian territory should be taken as a defense for the time being.

In my opinion, this is also part of Ukraine’s efforts to go on the offensive. I think we should take this as a signal that there is a warring side fighting against a huge advantage, but they are still unafraid. And I don’t think that leads to further escalation on Russia’s part yet, but rather it gets Russia into more and more trouble, which after all we see around Kyiv and Chernihiv .

They don’t leave, they regroup

If the Russian forces seem to be leaving the area around the Chernobyl power plant, withdrawing from certain villages in the kyiv region and the Chernihiv region, then how much can it be believed that they are actually leaving?
They are definitely not leaving. I think it’s clear now. It is a joining of forces. About four days ago they announced that the goal was to increase the number of troops in the Donbass even more. Perhaps in order to surround the Ukrainian troops on the Donbass. But I think it turns out that it’s not that simple.

It’s the great distances that have to be covered from Kyiv to the Donbass, and how the Ukrainian forces are gradually liberating the towns and villages around Kyiv – I think 20 or 30 villages have now been liberated – while the Russian forces around Kharkov grow, so that means moving Russian troops is not easy at all. They are still linked by logistics and in the north they have advanced the most by about 100 km. That is, if their forces were to withdraw from kyiv, north to Kharkov and south from Mariupol to the Donbass, they would have to travel many kilometers.


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So it’s a regrouping of forces, a little chaotic at the moment, some forces have moved to Belarus to reconstitute them, and so on. But one thing is important, whether they manage to get to Donbass in time or not is an open question at the moment, so they still have enough firepower to continue shelling the cities. The Ukrainian population, despite the initial success of the Ukrainian army, will continue to suffer greatly.

The second thing is that if the Ukrainians are to launch a bigger offensive, they will continue to need weapons. We hear it from them every day. They need planes, tanks, air defense.

I say this so that the first successes we are witnessing do not lead to a slowdown on the part of the West in the direction of support for the Ukrainian army. It’s quite the opposite. Now the support is very important, now it has to be as effective as possible and we can supply the Ukrainian army with weapons as quickly as possible.

The British Ministry of Defense also said that Russia was moving its troops from Georgia to Ukraine. How risky is this risky maneuver for Russia? Let me remind you that there are critical regions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
Just yesterday, my team and I released another proposal, namely that we should conduct a rapid exercise in Georgia at the invitation of the Georgian government, as well as the deployment of forces, in which our British and Polish armies should be involved, to increase the pressure on Russia. And that would also be important because the 58th Brigade, which is normally deployed in the Caucasus, just above Georgia, is the one that’s bothering Mariupol the most right now.


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Let’s take advantage of the fact that they have now left the Caucasus largely unprotected, other troops are retreating from here. It will be even more exposed. I think now, if we don’t want to fight directly and get into a conflict, we should at least do a series of exercises around Russia, say in the Caucasus, the Japanese can train around the Kuril Islands, in the north they can form. We should pressure it that way.

And the fact that troops are pulling out of Georgia, that the Vagner family has arrived there numbering about 1,000, and that they may be pulling mercenaries out of Syria, all of this is a symptom of the fact that they are experiencing growing problems. But this does not mean that they will stop harassing and attacking the Ukrainian civilian population. Maybe just the opposite.

Věra Štechrová, as

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