China will try to support Russia rather covertly, MK Lipavsky says

Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

© Adam Mráček / INCORP images
Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

Cossack linked the issue with the fall elections to high communist authorities in China. China’s active involvement in the conflict would carry a risk, which would put President Xi Jinping at a disadvantage in the Communist Party Congress. “I think China will try to support Russia in secret, but will not actively enter the war,” he said.

According to him, China’s position is complicated. On the one hand, he doesn’t want Russia to fall, because it’s advantageous for an Asian country when there are more states that oppose the West, and therefore it’s not limited to China. But the fundamentally weakened Russia, in turn, can benefit China economically because it will depend on it to some degree, Kozak says.

“From the outside, China is proceeding very cautiously, but internally, Chinese propaganda is taking precedence over Russian rhetoric, including disinformation campaigns about alleged US chemical and biological weapons development in Ukraine. “, added Kozak. According to him, the propaganda is relatively successful, the Chinese are behind Russian President Vladimir Putin and their contempt for the West is growing. Any sign of resistance is quickly eliminated by censorship.

A virtual summit of the European Union and China will take place on Friday, the subject of which will be, among other things, the Chinese position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “The Czech Republic has given the EU leaders who will participate in the virtual summit a clear mandate on what needs to be said towards China. Any support for Putin is unacceptable and will negatively affect not only relations between the European Union and the China, but also bilateral relations between China and individual member states,” Kozák added.

China steps up diplomatic activities in Ukraine during war

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang I traveled to Southeast Asia last week, visiting Pakistan and, without notice, India, Afghanistan and Nepal. The mission of the chief of Chinese diplomacy took place at a time when Beijing faces criticism from the United States and its allies for its ambivalent position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and tries to win the support of the States neighbours, writes the Hong Kong daily. South China Morning Post.

Observers say the failure to announce Wang’s trip in advance is extremely unusual, in part because of Beijing’s fear of diplomatic isolation. Wang’s first stop since Monday March 21 was Pakistan, one of China’s key allies. In Islamabad, the Chinese Minister of Foreign Affairs, as a “special guest”, attended a meeting of the heads of diplomacy of more than 50 States of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation.

On Thursday, Wang made a brief stopover in Afghanistan, where the Islamist Taliban movement came to power last August. The minister expressed Chinese support for the Afghan government, which faces sanctions in the West and is not officially recognized by other countries, including China.

The next visit to India, where Wang arrived on Thursday afternoon, was not announced in advance. According to Indian media, the visit was initiated by Beijing, and Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanj Jaishankar said China wished India had not been informed before Wang arrived in Delhi. Wang traveled to Nepal on Friday afternoon.

“It is quite difficult to keep visits at such a high level secret,” said liberal Chinese political scientist Ku Su. It shows that China is operating in “crisis mode”, trying to define its position on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, while stepping up diplomatic efforts to win support from its neighbors, Ku said.

“China desperately needs understanding and support for its position on Ukraine at the UN and elsewhere. Before major changes in the Chinese leadership (at the Chinese Communist Party Congress in the second half of this year), it must ensure that its international image is not tarnished by the Ukraine crisis,” said analyst Ku Su. “But it is a difficult task, Beijing obviously has no idea of ​​the outcome of its efforts and is afraid of failure. Therefore, it has decided not to announce Wang’s travels in advance.” , he added.

Wang’s trip to India was the first visit by a senior Chinese official since a bloody clash between Chinese and Indian soldiers on the border between the two countries two years ago. During the visit, Wang stressed that “the border issue should not determine or affect the development of Indochina relations.” But Indian diplomat Jaishankar said the condition for normalizing Beijing-Delhi relations was to withdraw troops from the border. He also said China-India relations “are not normal and cannot be normal when the border situation is not normal.”

The Sino-Indian talks have also affected the situation in Ukraine, with the two countries jointly calling for “an immediate ceasefire and a return to diplomacy and dialogue”. China and India have yet to hear the West’s pleas to condemn Russia’s aggression, and in the General Assembly they were among more than 30 countries that abstained on the resolution accusing Russia to aggravate the humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.

According to analyst Jün Sun of the Stimson Center in Washington, Wang’s only visit to Delhi is a success for China. “But India is unlikely to be willing to ally with China on foreign policy because Delhi, like other countries that have abstained at the UN, is reluctant to speak out in China,” Yun said.

International relations expert Shinyin-chung of the People’s University of China in Beijing said India and China take an ambivalent stance on the Ukraine crisis for different reasons and are unlikely to improve their relationships in the near future. “India’s motive is closely tied to concerns about China. Delhi is relying on arms shipments from Russia to resist Beijing and Islamabad,” Shi said.

According to Shin Jin-chung, the position of developing countries will be determined by how Moscow proceeds in the war. “I don’t think many countries will want to turn a blind eye to the attacks on the civilian population that have already driven four million people out of Ukraine, and they won’t support such a brutal war,” Shi said. China’s efforts to get other countries to adopt a “neutral stance” may not be very successful, he added.

But according to a political scientist from Nanjing University in Kua, China must try to win over surrounding states for its position. “India and other Southeast Asian countries are important for the stability of the region before the Chinese Communist Party Congress approaches, and China must try to convince them of its views, which was also a key mission of Wang’s journey,” Ku said. .

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